Model estimates 1.9 million more deaths from coronavirus in 2020

Coronavirus deaths. A widely cited model predicts that there will be 1.9 million more deaths in the remainder of 2020 The death toll coul...

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  • Coronavirus deaths. A widely cited model predicts that there will be 1.9 million more deaths in the remainder of 2020
  • The death toll could decrease if governments act, but there is “covid fatigue” due to the adverse economic effects that have been suffered worldwide
  • Most of the world’s population lives in the Northern Hemisphere. Respiratory diseases tend to peak in the winter months, a seasonal effect that is expected to also apply to covid

Coronavirus deaths. A widely cited model predicts that worsening outbreaks in the Northern Hemisphere will lead to 1.9 millions more deaths from coronavirus in 2020, unless governments act, the Associated Press news agency reported.

Masking mandatory use and social distancing could save hundreds of thousands of lives, but there is “a tremendous amount of COVID fatigue” among the world’s governments due to adverse economic effects, said Dr. Christopher Murray of the Institute of Metrics. and University of Washington Health Assessment.

Most of the world’s population lives in the Northern Hemisphere. Respiratory illnesses tend to peak in the winter months, a seasonal effect that is expected to hold true for COVID-19 as well, Murray said Friday.

Disease models are based on assumptions about human behavior, so there is a great deal of uncertainty.

Even if a vaccine proves to be safe and effective, there will not be time to distribute enough vaccines to change the prognosis, Murray said.

The IHME model projects that the wave will peak globally in mid-December, with 30,000 deaths per day, and in the United States in early December, with about 2,900 deaths per day.

India, the United States, Brazil, Mexico and Japan will lead the world in total deaths by January 1, according to the forecast.

A thrombosis may be an “early” indicator of COVID-19, surgeons warn

Vascular surgeons at the Miller School of Medicine, University of Miami (UM), warned that a thrombosis or blood clots in the circulatory system can be an “early” indicator of infection in a patient with COVID-19, based on a specific case that was treated in the emergency room.

Filed Under: Coronavirus Deaths

An article recently published in the journal Journal of Vascular Surgery detailed how a 67-year-old patient, who had no medical history, arrived at the hospital with severe discoloration in his right arm and pain in his hand and forearm.

Further investigation showed that he had clots in the arteries in his arm, leading to limb-threatening ischemia or loss of blood flow, and he soon tested positive for coronavirus.

“This patient had an acute arm problem, which included pain, numbness, and weakness. That was the main reason he came to the hospital, ”said assistant professor of surgery Tony Shao in a statement that UM just released.

“We found out pretty quickly that he had COVID, even though (the patient) reported only mild respiratory symptoms,” he added.

Although the surgery saved the patient’s arm and most of his hand (…), the patient ended up spending weeks on a ventilator before finally being discharged from the hospital, the statement details.

Filed Under: Coronavirus Deaths

“In autopsy studies in patients who died of coronavirus, doctors have found that the virus causes microthrombosis, particularly in the capillaries of the alveoli (small air sacs in the lungs). However, the blockages described in the study were found in a medium-sized artery, ”explained Dr. Shao.

According to the UM, the authors published this case to alert people who see the novel SARS-CoV-2 coronavirus simply as a respiratory illness.

In particular, doctors should be alert to COVID-19 infections when patients present with acute limb ischemia and without risk factors, he stresses.

“People are beginning to realize that COVID promotes hypercoagulability,” noted Dr. Naixin Kang, lead author of the study.

“We don’t know exactly what the mechanism is, but it is now being recognized and studied by different medical societies. While this is certainly a respiratory virus, we must be careful about excessive clotting, ”Kang noted.

Filed Under: Coronavirus Deaths

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Filed Under: Coronavirus Deaths

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