- Experts warn about an active 2021 hurricane season
- They report activity “above the annual average”
- There is a 69% chance that a hurricane will hit somewhere on the east coast of the United States
The next 2021 hurricane season in the Atlantic will be extrelemy active with 17 named tropical storms, due to the absence of the El Niño weather phenomenon, according to an annual forecast report released this Thursday.
The report of the Colorado State University (CSU) obtained by Efe, states that there is an above-average probability that “major hurricanes will impact the continental coast of the United States and the Caribbean”, after a ‘record-breaking’ 2020 hurricane season in the United States.
Worse than last year?
University experts anticipate 17 named storms, with eight hurricanes for this 2021 and four of them hurricanes with sustained winds of about 178 kilometers per hour, that is, category 3,4 or 5 on the Saffir / Simpson scale, which that could represent a strong risk for some areas of the US.
The forecast, presented within the framework of the National Tropical Climate Conference, is based on more than four decades of historical hurricane data compiled by CSU and on the observation of two key elements for the formation of those hurricanes.
Why would there be a ‘strong’ hurricane season in 2021?
According to the report cited by Efe, there are two factors, the first of which is the absence of phenomena known as El Niño and La Niña, which consist of fluctuations in the Pacific, in addition to the water temperatures in the Atlantic.
The report from experts from the University of Colorado largely coincide with those presented this week by the meteorological services company Accuweather. If the forecast for 2021 comes true as anticipated by CSU, this season it will be 40% above average.
Chances of a hurricane hitting the US
Specifically, the report says that there is a 69% probability that a hurricane will affect some part of the east coast of the United States, when the average of the last century was 52%, highlights Efe. The forecast includes 80 days of storms and 35 days of hurricanes.
This, as in the 2020 hurricane season, a record year for storms, but above the historical averages of 59 and 24, respectively. In addition, a 44% probability of a hurricane reaching the Gulf of Mexico has been estimated.
They reveal how many storms could occur in the 2021 hurricane season
Also, a 58% probability of a hurricane has been reported in the Caribbean, both numbers significantly above the historical averages, indicates Efe. In this case, they foresee that in 2021 16 to 20 named storms will form in the Atlantic.
Of which between seven and ten will become hurricanes, of which between three and five will be of a higher category, says Efe. In the 2020 season, the busiest in history, there were 30 named storms, thirteen of them hurricanes and six of them major.
How much does a hurricane ‘cost’?
Last hurricane season was also a record because the US suffered twelve direct ‘hits’, three more than in 1916, which had the previous record, according to Accuweather. Hurricane Delta caused $ 2.9 billion in damage in the United States.
In addition, it caused at least six deaths in the United States and Mexico, according to a study by the National Hurricane Center, compiled by The Associated Press. The examination details the origins of the hurricane, its trajectory, the force of its winds, the tides raised as it passed through southeastern Louisiana.
Terrible hurricanes during the 2020 season
The Hurricane Center issues such documents for each named storm that occurs in a season. Estimates of the worst hurricanes of 2020, including Laura, Iota and Zeta, have not yet been released, the AP says.
In the United States, two people died from Hurricane Delta, a 19-year-old girl and a 49-year-old man, both in Destin, Florida, in addition, there were two other indirect deaths, by fire or electrocution. In Mexico, there were two indirect deaths due to the hurricane, from the last hurricane season.
The National Hurricane Center makes the distinction between direct and indirect deaths. The direct ones with which the storm immediately caused, such as someone drowning or someone who was in a house that was collapsed by the hurricane.
But if someone dies of a heart attack or is electrocuted by a cable knocked over by the winds, for example, it is an indirect death, details The Associated Press. The hurricane made landfall with category 2 and winds of 156 kilometers per hour.
They warn severe weather for this Thursday
Also, it caused waves of 2.7 meters. While Laura’s damage was primarily from winds, Delta’s was from torrential downpours particularly between Lake Charles and Alexandria. Almost 18 inches fell on the LeBleu Settlement northeast of Lake Charles, the study says.
50 million people at risk after severe storm warning in the US According to CNN meteorologist Derek Van Damm, heavy storms can be expected in parts of the eastern United States today.
Millions of Americans on Alert
The worst could be expected on Friday after a severe weather warning was issued for the south of the country. Forecasters say it could be an upcoming stormy period across the south. A flash flood warning early Thursday covered parts of New Orleans, according to the National Weather Service (NWS).
Several highways were impassable after 3 to 5 inches of rain fell in short order Thursday morning, emergency management officials said. The flooding came as forecasters warned of severe storms for Friday and Saturday from Texas and Oklahoma to the Carolinas.
Parts of Louisiana, Arkansas, Mississippi and Alabama will be at higher risk for multiple storms on Friday, the National Storm Prediction Center projects. According to the NWS, approximately 50 million people could be at risk from the coming storm system. More than 10 million inhabitants are currently at a risk level 3 out of 5, reported CNN.
According to meteorologists, another storm system is likely in southern areas similar to those affected on Wednesday this week. The millions at risk include the residents of Dallas and Fort Worth in Texas, Shreveport, Louisiana and Jackson in Mississippi.
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